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The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last Wednesday that possible oil supply disruptions in Iran and Venezuela have prompted oil traders to turn their attention to geopolitics rather than fundamentals. Any supply gap may lead to soaring oil prices.
Both WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil are base crude oils that reflect trends in the international crude oil market. Because of their similar oil quality, their pricing should be relatively close. However, historically, the price difference between the two has experienced large fluctuations. After the US lifted the oil embargo, the volatility of the Brent-WTI spread has decreased. The overall spread has averaged around US$2, but it has risen to US$0, a new high since 205. This phenomenon is worthy of attention.
The trend of international crude oil prices on Friday was mainly dominated by OPEC’s issue of freezing production. Intraday oil prices once jumped from a low level due to news that Saudi Arabia was willing to cut production to prompt Iran to freeze its oil production at the current level, but in the end Iran did not. Being moved, which caused oil prices to plunge again, falling below the intraday lows in the short-term and erasing most of the gains during the week.
Sources said that Saudi Arabia and Russia may take the lead at the meeting to discuss whether to increase oil production by 0 million barrels per day. If the oil production reduction agreement is really relaxed, it may become a long-term factor that is bad for oil prices.
Because analysts pointed out that Venezuela’s and Iran’s oil production will fall, the economic dilemma makes Venezuela no more capable of producing crude oil, and the United States is likely to impose sanctions on Venezuela, which will make Venezuela worse, and the United States will withdraw from Iran. The nuclear agreCrude oil market newsement and sanctions on Iran will also cause Iran's crude oil production to drop significantly.
OPEC-According to the RIA news agency, OPEC Secretary-General Barkindu made it clear on Tuesday that the freezing of production will continue for a year. In addition, Barkindu pointed out that the status of crude oil in the energy market is unquestionable, and the process of rebalancing the oil market needs to be accelerated as soon as possible. Yesterday, on Monday, September 9, Algeria’s Energy Minister stated that any freeze production measures taken by OPEC could stabilize the crude oil market for at least six months.
Trump stated that he intends to accelerate the approval of the Texas pipeline construction. Due to the bottleneck of Texas oil pipeline facilities, some analysts lowered the growth rate of crude oil output in the Permian Basin. This situation is contrary to Trump's hope of increasing energy supply.
OPEC's production cut has brought strong support to oil prices in the past year, and international oil prices have risen by more than 70%. However, considering the supply risks in Iran and Venezuela, and the high oil prices that allow competitors to enjoy themselves, there is news that Russia and OPEC are discussing production increases. At the same time, Saudi Energy Minister Falih said that the country is preparing to adjust its policy in June, but did not disclose the specific increase in output.